Who is favored to win the Oscar? Viewers and odds make their choices

The 95u The annual Oscars are scheduled for this Sunday, March 12 on ABC at 8 p.m. (ET) and televised to 200+ nations/territories worldwide from the Dolby Theater in Hollywood. After three years without a host, Jimmy Kimmel will return for this year’s telecast. It will be Kimmel’s third time as host. The late-night host previously hosted the Oscars in 2017 and 2018. In recent years, the Oscars have seen a drop in viewership. While last year’s average audience improved to 15.4 million viewers, it was the second lowest audience to date.

The three-hour (or possibly longer) live telecast will present the award in 23 categories, with the six most anticipated categories being Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor.

To find out who the Oscar favorites will be, Diesel Labs, a predictive media analytics company, analyzed recent interest/engagement data from social media platforms and video from fans of last year’s telecast and expected viewers for this Sunday’s telecast . With legalized betting now available in three dozen states, the latest betting odds from DraftKings are included for added color.

Best Picture Nominations: All quiet on the western front. Avatar: The Way of Water; Elvis? Everything Everywhere at Once. Tar; The Banshees of Inisherin? The Fabelmans? Top Gun: Maverick? Triangle of success? Women talking

· Diesel Workshops: Of the ten films nominated, Diesel Labs reports that the two highest-grossing films were also the two highest-grossing films. Top Gun: Maverick ranked first among Oscar fans. The Tom Cruise sequel has grossed nearly $1.5 billion at the global box office ($718.7 million domestically). In second place was James Cameron Avatar: The Way of Water. To date, the sequel has grossed $2.82 billion worldwide ($671 million domestically), making it the third highest-grossing film of all time. The pre-Oscar favorite in the category Everything Everywhere Simultaneously ranks third.

· DraftKings: Everything Everywhere Simultaneously is the betting favorite to win the Oscar for Best Picture. The film has already won Best Picture at major award shows such as the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards and the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards. The remake of the anti-war classic All quiet on the western front, which won the BAFTA
Best Film, took second place. Oddsmakers ranked the Irish comedy/drama The Banshees of Inisherin who won a Golden Globe third, followed by Top Gun: Maverick.

Nominations for Best Director: Todd Field (Tar) Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere Simultaneously) Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sorrow) and Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

· Diesel Labs: According to Oscar fans, this should be one of the most competitive of the six categories, with Rubin Ostlund edging out Todd Field in terms of audience engagement. Although the award could easily go to any of the five nominees.

· DraftKings: Oddsmakers peg Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert to win their first Oscars. The pair have already won the Directors Guild Award and Critics’ Choice Movie Awards. Second favorite is Steven Spielberg who won the Golden Globe for Best Director this year. For the 76-year-old Spielberg, this is his 22nd Oscar nomination (he has won three times).

Best Actress Nominations: Ana de Armas (Blonde): Cate Blanchett (Tar) Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere Simultaneously)

· Diesel Workshops: Among the five leads, Oscar fans overwhelmingly pick Andrea Riseborough to win the Oscar with Michelle Williams a close second. This is likely due in part to a grassroots campaign to get her to the top of social engagement charts. Surprisingly, Michelle Yeoh is tied among the nominees with Ana de Armas.

· DraftKings: The lucky ones see a close race with Michelle Yeah slightly favored over Cate Blanchett. Yeoh has won several prestigious awards earlier this year, including the Golden Globes and SAG Awards. For Blanchett this is her eighth Oscar nomination and she has won twice. Earlier this year, Blanchett won the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards and BAFTA.

Best Actor Nominations: Austin Butler (Elvis) Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) Brendan Fraser (The whale) Paul Mescal (After the SUN) Bill Nye (Zoe)

· Diesel Labs: Oscar fans are seeing a competitive race with Colin Farrell holding a slight lead over Austin Butler. Both actors had won Golden Globes in January. Butler also won the BAFTA for Best Performance. In third place is Screen Actors Guild Award and Critics’ Choice Movie Awards winner Brendan Fraser.

· DraftKings: Among the lucky ones, Brendan Fraser is favored to win the Oscar, followed by Austin Butler with Colin Ferrell third.

Supporting Actress Nominations: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) Hong Chow (The whale) Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere Simultaneously) Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere Simultaneously)

· Diesel Laboratories: Angela Bassett, the first actress to be nominated for a role in a Marvel film, garnered the most attention from Oscar fans. This year, Bassett, 64, has already won Critics’ Choice Movie Awards and Golden Globes. Another SAG Awards winner Jamie Lee Curtis, 64, came in second. Stephanie Hsu is a distant third.

· DraftKings: Similar to Diesel Labs, fans favor Angela Bassett over Jamie Lee Curtis with Stephanie Hsu third. All three have never won an Oscar, although Angela Bassett was nominated in 1994 for best actress.

Supporting Actor Nominations: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) Ke Huy Quon (Everything Everywhere Simultaneously)

· Diesel Laboratories: Oscar viewer loyalty is highest for Ke Huy Quan, who has won a Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Movie Awards and SAG Awards. Brian Tyree Henry placed second in the class.

· DraftKings: Fans overwhelmingly expect Ke Huy Quan to win his first Oscar. BAFTA-winning Barry Keoghan and co-star Brendan Gleason are runners-up.

“Audience engagement is a very different metric than the members-only votes used by the Academy to select winners,” said Anjali Midha, CEO of Diesel Labs. “However, it helps us understand where the fans are leaning and provides a bit more insight into how the results might be received by viewers on Sunday night.”

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