by Earlier this offseason, we released an updated version of the NFL Draft pick trade value chart, which takes the work done by the Jimmy Johnson trade chart from the 1990s and updates it to reflect the current pick-for-pick trades made in the market over the past few years. In this article, we also laid out different trade packages that top-10 QB-needy teams would have to put together to reach No. 1. The Panthers he did just that on Fridaygiving up No. 9, No. 61, a 2024 champion, a 2025 second rounder and DJ Moore.
Our trade chart doesn’t factor in player values, but by measuring the picks part of the equation, we can determine Moore’s value on the trade chart when we factor in the range of interest in the No. 1 pick, a wrinkle we added to this year’s chart. The total to cover the difference in the price of the No. 1 pick from what the Panthers gave up in picks is between the 15th (medium interest for No. 1) and 28th (low interest for No. 1) overall picks this year’s draft. Considering AJ Brown cost the Eagles No. 18 and No. 101, a package we value around the 15th pick, and the Ravens-Cardinals deal put Marquise Brown’s value at about the 29th overall pick, our range for Moore looks pretty in line with the market for receivers last year.
But the trade for the No. 1 pick is done and dusted, with all that’s left on that front is speculation about what the Panthers will get with the top pick. On the trade front, we turn our attention to the No. 3 overall pick, where the Arizona Cardinals have a chance to move down in the draft for a package of picks with a franchise quarterback in place in the form of Kyler Murray.
Bargain at No. 3
Unlike No. 1, we won’t offer a range of outcomes for a pick trade, but it’s important to note that quarterback trades at the top of the draft could result in larger-than-expected packages. The 49ers’ No. 3 deal in 2021, which they used on Trae Lance, exceeded our No. 3 baseline by about 46 points, or about the value of the 83rd pick in the draft. The Jets paid an even bigger premium to move up for Sam Darnold in 2018, trading up on the No. 3 starter by about 146 points, roughly equivalent to the 37th pick in the draft. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the team moving up to No. 3 pay a premium that falls just short of the Jets’ deal depending on their level of desperation or competition for the pick.
We’ll break down several potential trade candidates for No. 3 below, starting with the team at No. 4.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have moved on from veteran quarterbacks in recent years with little success, and perhaps now is a good time to turn to the draft for their next signal caller. If they don’t want to settle for whoever is left at No. 4, they could make a small deal to move up a spot in the Mitchell Trubisky trade in 2017, which would allow the Cardinals to have their non-QB option at draft.
- Foals receive: #3 overall
- The Cardinals receive: No. 4, No. 164, 2024 second
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders parted ways with longtime quarterback Derek Carr this offseason. His release put Jarrett Stidham atop the depth chart at quarterback, though Josh McDaniels almost certainly isn’t done moving.
- Raiders get: #3 overall
- The Cardinals receive: No. 7, No. 71, 2024 first
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons drafted Desmond Ridder in the third round last year, but he hasn’t shown enough to ensure he’ll be the franchise quarterback moving forward. The franchise also has a conditional pick for 2024 that could end up as high as the second round based on what happens with Calvin Ridley and the Jaguars, which could make trading a premium option next year more pleasant.
- Falcons receive: #3 overall
- The Cardinals receive: No. 8, No. 76, No. 114, 2024 first
Tennessee Titans
The Titans could enter rebuilding mode with rumors surrounding Derrick Henry as a potential trade candidate. That could put them a year or two away from targeting a quarterback, but if they think they’re a long way from returning to the top of the AFC South, they’re likely to try to make a deal.
- The Titans receive: #3 overall
- The Cardinals receive: No. 11, No. 42, 2024 first, 2024 third
New York Jets
All the Jets speculation at quarterbacks centers around Aaron Rodgers, but if he ends up staying in Green Bay, the team could then turn to the long haul at No. 3 for a quarterback for the second time in six years. It’s also possible the Jets could drop the price a bit by including Elijah Moore, similar to the Bears-Panthers deal (though it’s unlikely to be valued anywhere near Moore). The road map for a trade around that pick was also put in place by the 49ers two years ago if the Jets dip deeper in the future
- Jets receive: #3 overall
- The Cardinals receive: No. 13, 2024 first and either 1. No. 44 and No. 75, or 2. 2024 third, 2025 first
Washington Governors
The Commanders are set to enter the new league year with Sam Howell as their QB1, though he certainly can’t stay atop the depth chart until September rolls around.
- Commanders receive: #3 overall
- The Cardinals receive: No. 16, No. 98, No. 119, 2024 first, 2025 first
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Unless Tom Brady changes his mind about retiring again, the Bucks have work to do at quarterback.
- The Buccaneers receive: #3 overall
- The Cardinals receive: No. 19, No. 83, 2024 first, 2024 third, 2025 first
