by Below is a breakdown of the prospects in the Toronto Blue Jays farm system. The scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the third year we’ve delineated two expected relief roles, the abbreviations of which you’ll see in the position column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player must be added to the 40-man roster to avoid the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where appropriate, but we use this as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the prospects listed below are also featured on The Board, a resource the site offers that includes searchable, sortable information for each organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and incorporates each team’s roster so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. You can find it here.
Other Perspectives of Note
They are grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Very young prospects to watch
Yeuni Munoz, OF
Jean Joseph, OF
Victor Arias, O.F
Edward Duran, C
Munoz, 19, stood out in extended spring training as a very physical hitter with plus bat speed. He struggled with hitting the year before and didn’t really get a chance to show that he had fixed those issues because he barely played complex games due to injury. Joseph, 18, is a very projective center fielder with a strong bat-to-ball foundation. He was in the DSL in 2022. Arias, 19, was a stretch in the state and returned to the DSL to repeat the level, which he crushed. Sleek and with bat speed and quickness, his swing path may not hold up at the upper levels. Duran, 18, came from Miami to complete the Anthony Bass trade. The solid, athletic catcher also repeated in the DSL and performed well in terms of contact.
Types of starting points
Adrian Hernandez, RHP
Michael Dominguez, RHP
Adam Kloffenstein, RHP
Kendry Rojas, LHP
Hernandez is an athletic small righty with an uphill fastball that plays well enough for a pitch that only travels 90-93 mph. His change is the location of his money. Dominguez also has a low-90s uphill fastball and a dynamite secondary in the low-80s slider. Kloffenstein is more of a slider/downhill slider guy with a vulnerable heater and a solid slider/changeup combo. It also has a turnout hit. Rojas is a low-slot lefty with an average slider and changeup, and below-average velocity and fastball.
Last Bench Spot Sorts
Vinny Capra, DH
LJ Talley, UTIL
Devonte Brown, OF
Miguel Giraldo, 3B
Rikelbin De Castro, SS
Luis De Los Santos, SS
Capra and Talley have an extra flair for touch. Capra is a proper version of Tanner Morris. Talley, a left-handed hitter, plays a mix of first, second and third. Both are plus bats without much power or much to contribute defensively. The cafe is more of a well-rounded type of outdoor extra. Giraldo and De Castro were once touted international prospects who didn’t perform well enough with the bat to make the main section of the list. De Los Santos has gotten stronger and is still a good average hitter, but his swing is pretty stiff and out of control.
Not Enough Strikes
Julian Fernández, RHP
Ben Baggett, RHP
Jimmy Robbins, LHP
Jimmy Burnette, LHP
Jol Concepcion, RHP
Trent Palmer, RHP
Chad Dallas, RHP
Fernández, now 27, has been at the bottom of prospect lists for more than half a decade, falling hard for multiple teams, being a Rule 5 and now with the Jays on a minor league deal. He’s still sitting 97-98 mph, so let’s see what happens with the change of scenery. Baggett sits 93-95 and has a knockout ball. Robbins and Burnette are low pitching lefties with good sliders and both could be lefty specialists. Concepcion is a low-calorie version of Fernández. sits 94-95. Palmer is an athlete with a good slider and changeup. He had TJ late in 2022. Dallas was supposed to be a slider monster in that one, but he didn’t make a jump in his first full season after getting hired by Tennessee.
Flying Power-Over-Hit
Rainer Nunez, 1B
Zach Britton, OF
Sebastian Espino, 3B
Nunez is a huge 3B/1B frame that will almost certainly only be first base at the end. He’s kept his K rates in check thus far, but his right-hitting first base profile means he has a high bar to clear. Britton has above average bat speed but a 40 strikeout tool. Espino has a 70 frame and a great swing, but no feel for the barrel.
System Overview
Toronto’s current status as a major league contender has inspired them to trade away a number of prospects (most notably, Jordan Grossans and the recently graduated Gabriel Moreno) for major leaguers who will help them make another run at the playoffs. As it stands now, the Blue Jays systems feature several exciting players whose profiles are characterized by very high ceilings combined with very low floors. The proportion of this group that includes such high variance, particularly in the top half of the list, is remarkable. about half of the above prospects fall into the high-variation category, and 11 of them are in our top 15 (for comparison, of the 38 prospects on this year’s Orioles List, we consider only 12 to be high-variation).
In some cases, high-variation prospects have alternatives with similar profiles elsewhere on the list, players who may not have the same cathedral ceilings but are also less likely to stumble into the basement. Sometimes this results in a player’s low variance becoming a contributing factor to his rise in rankings, such as Josh Kasevich surpassing Orelvis Martinez. But in other cases, a high-risk prospect with a high ranking will have a low-risk alternative further down the list (eg Bowden Francis provides safety against highly ranked starters at the top of the list). The more advanced prospects here (like Francis, Otto Lopez, basically everyone currently on the 40 man) will provide great depth to fill in should Toronto deal with a high injury rate in 2023. This club is deep and ready to fly down with the Yankees and Rays, as well as hold off the charging Orioles and the awakening Red Sox.
The high-variance players listed above also have some redundancy in their overall profiles, with the organization hoping at least one of them realizes his high ceiling. Many of these high-variance mistakes were picked in the early rounds of the 2022 draft: Brandon Barriera, their first pick in the 2022 draft, can be seen as a seven-second delay Ricky Tiedemann. Toman is a potential second base alternative for Addison Barger. and Cade Doughty is quite similar to Gabriel Martinez in terms of age and offensive output, assuming Doughty can translate his SEC success to his pro career. Martinez is also the highest outfield prospect in Toronto’s system, not counting Otto Lopez, who we think is ready to move to center but has been spending most of his time in the infield so far. Martinez is still several years away from the bigs, so this lack of outfield options will be an area of focus for the team in the near future when it comes to filling in the gaps.
