The largest US tanks are moving in the right direction

Parts of California are under water, the Rockies are bracing for more snow, there are flood warnings in Nevada and water is being released from some Arizona reservoirs to make room for an expected abundant spring runoff.

All the moisture has helped ease dry conditions in many parts of the western U.S. Even the big reservoirs on the Colorado River are trending in the right direction.

But climate experts warn that favorable drought maps represent only a blip on the radar as the long-term effects of a persistent drought linger.

Groundwater and reservoir storage levels – which take much longer to recover – remain at historic lows. It could be more than a year before the extra moisture affects the Lake Mead shoreline that runs through Arizona and Nevada. And it’s unlikely that water managers have enough wiggle room to turn back the clock on proposals to limit water use.

That’s because water release and retention work for the massive reservoir and its upstream sibling — Lake Powell on the Utah-Arizona border — is already scheduled for the year. The reservoirs are used to manage Colorado River water deliveries to 40 million people in seven US states and Mexico.

However, Lake Powell could rise 45 feet (14 meters) as snow melts and makes its way into tributaries and rivers over the next three months. How much it will increase will depend on soil moisture levels, future rainfall, temperatures and evaporation losses.

“We’re definitely moving in the right direction, but we still have a long way to go,” said Paul Miller, a hydrologist at the National Weather Service’s Colorado River Basin Forecast Center.

Federal forecasters are scheduled Thursday to release forecasts for temperature, rainfall and drought over the next three months, as well as the risk of spring flooding.

California has already been pummeled by a firehose of moisture from the Pacific Ocean that has caused flooding, landslides and uprooted trees.

Ski resorts on the California-Nevada border mark their snowiest winter run since 1971, when records began. In fact, the Sierra Nevada is on the verge of surpassing its second-highest snow total for an entire winter season with at least two months to go.

In Arizona, forecasters warned heavy snowshoeing rain was expected in the mountains above the Sedona Desert enclave. One of the main creeks that runs through the tourist town was expected to reach flood stage, and evacuations were ordered for some neighborhoods late Wednesday.

“We’ve gone through pretty much all kinds of averages and normals in the Lower Colorado Basin,” Miller said, not unlike other western basins.

Forecasters say the real standout was the Great Basin, which stretches from the Sierra Nevada to the Wasatch Mountains in Utah. It has recorded more snow this season than the last two seasons combined. Joel Lisonbee, with the National Integrated Drought Information System, said that’s notable given that in the past decade, only two years — 2017 and 2019 — had above-average snowpack.

Overall, the West has been more dry than wet for more than 20 years, and many areas will continue to feel the effects.

Emergency declaration in Oregon warns of higher risks for water shortages and wildfires in the central part of the state. Pockets of central Utah, southeastern Colorado, and eastern New Mexico continue to experience extreme drought, while parts of Texas and the Midwest have become drier.

Forecasters expect hot, dry weather to set in over the next few weeks, meaning the drought will hold its ground in some areas and tighten its grip on others.

Tony Caligiuri, president of the conservation group Colorado Open Lands, said all the recent rain shouldn’t derail work to recharge the groundwater.

“The problem or danger in these episodic wet year events is that it can reduce the sense of urgency to address the long-term issues of water use and conservation,” he said.

The team is experimenting in the San Luis Valley in southern Colorado, the headwaters of the Rio Grande. One of North America’s largest rivers, the Rio Grande and its reservoirs are struggling due to scant snowstorms, long-term drought and constant demands. It dried up in the summer in Albuquerque, and managers didn’t have extra water to top up the flows.

Colorado Open Lands reached an agreement with a farmer to withdraw his land and stop irrigating the approximately 1,000 acres. Caligiuri said the idea is to remove a large straw from the aquifer, which will allow the savings to sustain other farms in the area so they no longer face the risk of having their wells shut off.

“We’ve seen where we can have a lot of good years like the San Luis Valley when it comes to rainfall or snowfall and then a drought year can wipe out a decade of progress,” he said. “So you can’t stick your head in the sand just because you’re having a good wet year.”

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