With Denver on a three-game losing streak, the Kings, who have won 10 of their last 13, are not out of contention for the No. 1 seed. They trail the Nuggets by four in the loss column with about a month to play and a head-to-head game to go.
Meanwhile, the Lakers fell into a four-way tie and momentarily out of the playoffs with their loss to the Knicks on Sunday.
Below is a comprehensive snapshot of the Western Conference playoff situation and play-in games entering play on Monday. This post will be updated daily throughout the remainder of the regular season or until all seeds are set.
Reminder of how the play-in tournament works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game gets the No. 7 seed, while the loser plays the winner of the 9-10 game for the No. 8 seed.
READING: Picture of the Eastern Conference playoffs
NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and accurate projections imaginable.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The Nuggets lost three straight to at least break the window for the No. 2 Kings to catch them for the No. 1 seed. With 14 games to play, Denver leads Sacramento by four games in the losing streak, but still has a head-to-head matchup on the final day of the season.
If Sacramento can win three games over the next three-plus weeks — a long streak, but certainly not impossible as Denver has begun to slide — it would go into that final game controlling its fate for the top seed as the the game will also decide the tiebreaker with Denver.
- Predicted Seed: 1
- Current First Round Match: TBD
- Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Denver is tight
- Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Season series tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Denver leads the season series 2-0 with two to play
2. Sacramento Kings (40-26)
Sacramento trails No. 1 Denver by four games, but still has a head-to-head matchup on the final day of the season. If Sacramento can make it three games over the next three-plus weeks — a tall order, but certainly not impossible as Denver has started to climb — it would go into this final game controlling its fate for the top seed in this game will be decided by the tie break.
That said, Sacramento’s most pressing job is holding off Memphis for the No. 2 seed, which will bring with it home-field advantage in a potential second-round series.
- Predicted Seed: 3
- Current First Round Match: vs. Timberwolves-Mavericks play-in winner
- Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: The Kings currently hold a conference winning percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
Memphis remains tied with the No. 2 Kings, four over the No. 4 Suns. Memphis trails No. 1 Denver, which has clinched the tiebreaker, by five effective games.
- Predicted Seed: 2
- Current First Round Match: against Warriors
- Tiebreaker vs. Denver: The nuggets are tight
- Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: The Kings currently own the conference record
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Grizzlies own via division leader
4. Phoenix Suns (37-30)
The Suns fell four games behind No. 2 Sacramento and No. 3 Memphis with their loss to the Kings on Saturday. Phoenix has a three-game lead over the No. 5 Clippers and No. 6 Warriors. With 15 games to play, it’s starting to feel like Phoenix is pretty much locked into the 4-seed.
- Predicted Seed: 4
- Current First Round Match: vs. Clippers
- Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Grizzlies own via division leader
- Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Phoenix leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: The suns are tight
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: The Suns currently own a winning percentage through conferences
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
5. Los Angeles Clippers (36-33)
The Clippers are tied in the loss column with the No. 6 Warriors with one game remaining. They have just one loss against the No. 7 Timberwolves and No. 8 Mavericks.
- Predicted Seed: 5
- Current First Round Match: at the Suns
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: The wolves tightened
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: The Mavericks currently own through conference record
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 1-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz tight
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Clippers tightened
6. Golden State Warriors (35-33)
The Warriors jumped over the play-in line again with their win over the Bucks on Saturday. They are tied in the loss column with the No. 5 Clippers and have the tiebreaker secured, meaning they control their destiny for the 5 seed. But do they want it? It will likely mean a first-round matchup with the Suns.
- Predicted Seed: 6
- Current First Round Match: at the Grizzlies
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: The suns are tight
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: The warriors tightened
Play-In Tournament
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (34-34)
Minnesota is tied in the loss column with the No. 8 Mavericks, with one loss at the 9-12 seed.
- Predicted Seed: 9
- Current First Round Match: vs. Mavericks (Play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: The wolves tightened
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: The wolves tightened
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Wolves currently hold the division record
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: The wolves tightened
8. Dallas Mavericks (34-34)
In their quest to climb above the play-in line, Dallas is one behind the No. 5 Clippers with the tiebreaker currently in their favor, and one behind the No. 6 Warriors with a head-to-head game to-head to remain.
- Predicted Seed: 7
- Current First Round Match: at Timberwolves (Play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns own conference winning percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: The wolves tightened
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Dallas currently holds the through conference record
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
9. Utah Jazz (33-35)
Utah is currently in a four-way tie with the No. 10 Thunder, No. 11 Lakers and No. 10 Pelicans. In tiebreaker scenarios involving more than two teams, the nod, in turn, goes to the team with the best winning percentage in all matches between the teams involved.
- Predicted Seed: Lottery
- Current First Round Match: at the Lakers (Play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Jazz Clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
10. Oklahoma City Thunder (33-35)
See the Utah section for the breakdown of the four-way tie.
- Predicted Seed: Lottery
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: The pelicans clucked
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: OKC leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Portland: OKC bolted
Outside Looking In
9. Los Angeles Lakers (33-35)
See the Utah section for the breakdown of the four-way tie.
- Predicted Seed: 8
- Current First Round Match: vs. Jazz (Play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Clippers tightened
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Lakers lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Portland: The Blazers currently own the conference winning percentage
11. New Orleans Pelicans (33-35)
See the Utah section for the breakdown of the four-way tie.
- Predicted Seed: 10
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz tight
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Los Angeles leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: The pelicans clucked
- Tiebreaker vs. Portland: The pelicans clucked
The Blazers are two losses back in the play-in final after losing to New Orleans on Sunday.
- Predicted Seed: Lottery
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: The Blazers currently own the conference winning percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: The pelicans clucked
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: The thunder tightened