March Madness 2023 predictions: NCAA expert picks spread, odds on Thursday’s 1st-round games

Technically, the 2023 NCAA Tournament began Tuesday with the top four, but the real The mayhem of March begins on Thursday and Friday as first round action takes place across the country. Between the two days, the field will shrink in half from 64 to 32 teams as the (almost) sun-up-to-sundown schedule consumes the sport

It’s what makes March Madness, well, March Madness.

Getting extra skin in the games can help put you in the tournament spirit as well. Below, our CBS Sports experts have provided their insights with live picks and against the spread for some of the top games in Thursday’s extended bracket. Us expert parenthesis can offer some help on that front as well.

While survival and progression are clearly what matters to most, we’re interested in whether these teams will cover their spreads and have been following the season since November so we can offer our own thoughts on each game.

Be sure to stay with CBS Sports throughout the rest of the month for coverage of the NCAA Tournament all the way to the Final Four. Let’s take a look at our experts’ picks as the first round matches begin on Thursday.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook | All weather Eastern

Selected NCAA Tournament selections

(7) Missouri vs. (10) Utah State

Thursday, 13:40 | TNT, March Madness Live: That line opened at Utah State -2 and has gone -1 in the last day or so as Missouri gains steam among public bettors. I’m going to stick with the Utah State train here. Coach Ryan Odom led the Aggies to seven wins in their last eight games leading into the NCAA Tournament with the lone loss coming against a fifth-ranked San Diego State team that has the goods to make a deep run. Pick: Utah State -1

(1) Kansas vs. (16) Howard

Thursday, 2 p.m. | TBS, March Madness Live: Every year it feels like the lines for 1-16 games are too high, and yet almost every year, the No. 1 seed proves why it deserves such respect. Last year, KU beat Texas Southern in Round 1 by 27 points as a 21.5-point favorite and could do the same here against Howard despite the big numbers. Pick: Kansas -21

(1) Alabama vs. (16) Texas A&M-CC

Thursday, 14:45 | CBS, March Madness Live: No team this season has been more capable of hitting opponents’ tailbacks even against good competition than Alabama. The Crimson Tide have the No. 3 seed in college hoops and enter Thursday as a 24-point favorite against Texas A&M-CC. It still feels low. If Alabama can beat Mississippi State by 23 or No. 7 Texas A&M by 19, they could easily cover the 24 points against the Islanders if they want to. Pick: Alabama -24

Get every pick, every game, every upset and fill out your bracket with our help! Visit SportsLine now to see which teams will win and crack your bracket and who will lower the net, all from the model that has won over 92% of all CBS Sports matches in two of the last four tournaments.

(8) Arkansas vs. (9) Illinois

Thursday, 16:30 | TBS, March Madness Live: I feel like I’m on the right side of this since I took Illinois when it was +3 to open. Arkansas has the talent that is very appealing — Anthony Black and Nick Smith Jr. they’re potential top-10 picks — but they haven’t clicked for most of the season and enter the NCAA Tournament without any real momentum. Illinois has at least flashed at times this season and won in big games, and should be up for the task in win-or-go-home stakes. Pick: Illinois +2.5

(8) Iowa vs. (9) Auburn

Thursday, 18:50 | TNT, March Madness Live: As Jerry Palm wrote for Wednesday, the selection committee surprisingly awarded Auburn a spot in the Birmingham site to open the NCAA Tournament. So basically, this is a home game for the Tigers. That’s enough for me to lean their way into a tightrope, so I’ll drop the issue. Pick: Auburn -1

(5) Duke vs. (12) Oral Roberts

Thursday, 19:10 | CBS, March Madness Live: I got Oral Roberts when this line was at +6.5 and will stick with it at +6 (although I’m glad I got the hook on the original line). The Golden Eagles are one of four teams to win at least 30 games this season and enter the tournament having won 27 of their last 28. With Max Abmas, they have the goods to keep Duke sweating until the end. Pick: Oral Roberts +6.5