March Madness 2023 predictions: NCAA expert picks spread, odds on Friday’s 1st round games

The NCAA Tournament field will be reduced to 48 teams by the time first-round action begins on Friday. By the time the sun goes down and we head into the weekend, there will be 32 teams left — and they might not be the ones you expect, given how March Madness lived up to its name on Thursday.

The only problem you might have is consuming all the action that’s on the way this week. But if the only struggle you have with March Madness is finding second, third, and fourth screens to watch the action, then you’re probably doing just fine, huh?

Of course, getting extra skin in the games can help get you into the tournament spirit (if you’re not already there). Below, our CBS Sports experts have provided their insights with live picks and against the spread for some of the top games in Friday’s extended bracket. Us expert parenthesis can offer some help on that front as well.

While survival and progression are clearly what matters to most, we’re interested in whether these teams will cover their spreads and have been watching the season since November so we can offer our own thoughts on each game.

Be sure to stay with CBS Sports throughout the rest of the month for coverage of the NCAA Tournament all the way to the Final Four. Let’s take a look at our experts’ picks for the final day of the first round on Friday.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook | All weather Eastern

Selected NCAA Tournament selections

(3) Baylor vs. (14) UCSB

Friday, 13:30 | TNT, March Madness Live: UCSB, which won 27 games this season, was probably a trendy 14-over-3 pick for people on their team, which was … wrong. This Baylor team has struggled to be consistent at various points this season, but it can score on teams led by the second-most efficient offense in the sport and a team-leading 40 3-point shooting percentage. Bears roll big. Pick: Baylor -11.5

Spreading

UCSB +11.5

BU -11.5

UCSB +11.5

GULF -11.5

UCSB +11.5

GULF -11.5

Straight up

ORMOS

ORMOS

ORMOS

ORMOS

ORMOS

ORMOS

(5) Saint Mary’s vs. (12) VCU

Friday, 2 p.m. | TBS, March Madness Live: Everyone loves a good 12-over-5 pick — and so do I — but I’m not going to come out on top in this particular matchup. Saint Mary’s has been a borderline top-10 team in all KenPom and BartTorvik metrics all season. I’m leaning towards putting the points with the Gaels here. The real game is probably the under; it’s one of the few first-round matchups between two teams with top-20 defenses in adjusted efficiency ratings. Pick: Saint Mary’s -34

Spreading

VCU +4

VCU +4

VCU +4

SMC-4

SMC-4

VCU +4

Straight up

VCU

VCU

VCU

SMC

SMC

VCU

(4) UConn vs. (13) Iona

Friday, 16:30 | TBS, March Madness Live: Think UConn wins this one and advances, but I also think Iona, led by Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino, will give the Huskies a run for their money and keep them in single digits. This Gaels team is well-coached, works hard on defense and has the size to mitigate — maybe not eliminate, but moderate — the advantages UConn has with its athleticism and length. Option: Iona +9

Spreading

IONA +9

UCONN -9

IONA +9

IONA +9

UCONN -9

IONA +9

Straight up

UCONN

UCONN

UCONN

UCONN

UCONN

UCONN

(3) Gonzaga vs. (14) Grand Canyon

Friday, 7:35 p.m. | truTV, March Madness Live: Gonzaga has a top-10 scoring margin on the season and enters the NCAA Tournament leading the nation in that category over its last three games. Grand Canyon is a better opponent than your WCC foe, but the Zags have too much length and athleticism not to win easily. Pick: Gonzaga -15.5

Spreading

ZAGS -15.5

ZAGS -15.5

ZAGS -15.5

ZAGS -15.5

ZAGS -15.5

ZAGS -15.5

Straight up

ZAGS

ZAGS

ZAGS

ZAGS

ZAGS

ZAGS

(8) Memphis vs. (9) Florida Atlantic

Friday, 21:20 | TNT, March Madness Live: FAU has 31 wins going into the NCAA season after dominating Conference USA with a nice mix of offensive and defensive balance. The sticking point here in the FAU sweep is the fading of Memphis guard Kendrick Davis — a scorer and creator who might be the best at his position — but I bet coach Dusty Maye has at least one game plan to make things are difficult for him. I like the owls to win this one so I’ll take the 2.5 points. Option: FAU +2

Spreading

MEM -2

FAU +2

FAU +2

FAU +2

MEM -2

MEM -2

Straight up

MEM

FAU

FAU

FAU

MEM

MEM

(4) Indiana vs. (13) Kent State

Friday, 21:55 | TBS, March Madness Live: What we’ve seen from Indiana over the past month is equal parts encouraging and scary when projecting their prospects ahead of the tournament. You can’t tell what you get from this team. But At this point, with many people believing Kent State can pull it off, coach Mike Woodson will have IU ready. Big game from running back Trace Jackson-Davis, big second half from Jalen Hood-Sfifino — and an IU win (more than the number). Pick: Indiana -4

Spreading

IU -4

KSU +4

IU -4

IU -4

KSU +4

KSU +4

Straight up

IU

KSU

IU

IU

IU

KSU

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