I never know for sure what kind of responses I’ll get when I put out the call for Dynasty Fantasy Football questions on Twitter. This time of year, though, it’s a pretty good bet there will be questions about the rookies. And specifically this time there were. bunch of questions about the same guy or the same option, Bijan Robinson at 1.01.
There aren’t many questions about who should go No. 1, just how aggressive people should be in chasing him. And to be honest, I have the same questions in a few leagues of my own. So let’s start with an extended breakdown of what I would give for Robinson.
Overpaying for Bijan
First, you can see the value of Robinson according to me in a league of a quarterback right here. And if anything, I might be lower than the consensus he already seems to be an RB1 overall. I can see the argument for that, and I have no real problem with rating Robinson as the third-best player in Dynasty leagues, behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. But let’s tackle some of the above questions to get more specific…
I actually have CeeDee Lamb ahead of Robinson by himself, so I don’t like this trade at all. While Robinson is younger, I actually think Lamb should be a productive player for longer, and I certainly expect him to have a bigger impact in 2023. The above question is more interesting.
If I had finished second last year, I would have been much more interested in adding a back who could make the difference. I’d be thrilled to give up 1.03 and 1.11, probably even throw a second round pick into the deal. If you had to give up 1.02, I’d probably try to get by by adding two second round picks, but I could talk to 1.02 and 1.11 for Robinson.
The guy above this question is in a Superflex league. Right now, I much prefer Bryce Young to CJ Stroud, but I would definitely look to trade that third pick to get Robinson as well. I’d be less excited about trading 1.02 and another first time for Robinson in Superflex because I think Young has the potential to provide a big upside for a long time in that format.
As for the top question, in 10 team leagues I more aggressively pursue elite players. I’d give 1.02 and 1.10 and a second for Robinson. I would prefer to drop 1.04 and 1.06 and a second.
To sum it up, go get Bijan Robinson if you can. He’ll cost you a lot in Dynasty, and if the landing spot is right, he could even cost you a first-round pick in the redraft.
Current sleepers, future breakouts
This is a great question and one that I should probably answer at least once a year. Let’s go with one in each position.
Sam Howell is in a very interesting situation. He has an elite receiver duo with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. He has rushing ability, as evidenced by his 828 yards and 11 scores on the ground for North Carolina in 2021. And now he has one of the most successful offensive coordinators of the last half decade in Eric Bieniemi. If all goes well, Howell could go from an afterthought to borderline top-12 this season.
Running back is more difficult because most of the under-the-radar guys are away from an injury. But I don’t think James Cook loves enough. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry as a rookie, and the Bills have already talked about increasing his role starting in 2022. Devin Singletary is a free agent, so that will help. Cook was a Round 1 rookie pick that you might be able to get for an early second round pick right now. I wouldn’t be that surprised if he’s better than Isiah Pacheco, Brian Robinson and Tyler Allgeier next year.
Josh Palmer is my favorite sleeper/breakout wide receiver. If Keenan Allen is released, Palmer could be looking at 125 targets in 2023. He showed flashes at times last year and is entering his third year in the NFL, a common season for wide receivers. He scored 13 Fantasy points in six games last year, he can double that number this year if Allen is gone.
As for tight end, I’m buying quite a few of the second-year tight ends, but especially Greg Dulcich, Trey McBride and Cade Otton. I really like Chigziem Okonkwo too, but he seems to be already priced out wherever I look for him.
The Stefon Diggs window
That’s a good question, and it’s a good time in Diggs’ career to ask the question. He will turn 30 in the 2023 season. Recent history has been mixed with receivers this age. Davante Adams is about a year older than Diggs and has continued to be awesome. Guys like AJ Green and Allen Robinson seemingly hit a wall. And you should see Diggs through both lenses.
If you’re a contender, the risk of losing Diggs’ value to ACL or Father Time is worth the risk of winning a championship this year or next. He’s probably past the point where you’ll get much more than a mid-2023 1st for him, and that’s just not worth sacrificing your window for.
On the other hand, if you’re rebuilding, there’s no question you should be dealing with Diggs. The likelihood of him going down in the next couple of years is too great to keep him through a rebuild.
The tough choice is if you’re in the dreaded middle ground. Although I know I say this a lot, it’s the worst place to be. Just don’t feel like you have to go out of your way in the offseason. If you really don’t know if you’re a contender or not, I’d plan on keeping Diggs for at least a month to find out. Hopefully your team (or injury luck) will clear it up.
D’Andre Swift for sale
While many Dynasty trade questions are as straightforward as the above, D’Andre Swift is not. He is a player with elite talent and youth on his side. He is also a player with a questionable role and injury history. If you have Jonathan Taylor and Kenneth Walker, it’s totally understandable that you’d consider trading Swift. I just don’t really like the idea of trading him for a package. That’s because I don’t really like trading away the best player in a deal.
I’d be more interested in trying to turn Swift and something into a top-10 wide receiver. Or see if I can leverage him into an elite quarterback. If you’re going to take a package, then shoot for TE1 Mark Andrews and something else. if you can’t immediately make your team better by trading him, then I’d bet on him winning the talent and keeping him as the best flex in the league.
Appreciation of Kyle Pitts
I wouldn’t want to sell Kyle Pitts. I still believe in the talent, he will still only be 22 at the start of the season, his condition is unlikely to get any worse and his price has never been lower. If nothing else, I’d look to buy Kyle Pitts. And if you have him, the only move is to plan to start Kyle Pitts.
But if you wanted to sell, I would look for a veteran who helped me win this time. If I had a true contender, I’d take Travis Kelce or DaVante Adams or Nick Chump in a heartbeat. If I were to rebuild, I’d be even more inclined to hold on, but I’d take a top three pick in this year’s rookie draft…but that’s about it.