Bracketology Bubble Watch: Big Ten teams on the cutline desperate for resume-boosting wins

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North Carolina let another chance at a Quad 1 win get away from Duke at home on Saturday. Odds for the Tar Heels to make the 2023 NCAA Tournament are diminishing, but not yet extinct. Vanderbilt kept its slim tournament hopes alive with a home win over fellow bubble Mississippi State. The Commodores will likely need to make a splash in the SEC Tournament, but that can’t happen until they reach Kentucky in the quarterfinals. The Bulldogs open SEC Tournament play against Florida, which could very well be a must-win game. After that, a big opportunity awaits with No. 1 seed Alabama.

Boise State lost at Utah State on Saturday night, continuing the Mountain West chasers’ trend of winning at home and losing on the road against other contenders. Those two, along with Nevada, split the home-and-home series with each other. Only Utah State couldn’t beat San Diego in the regular season. That, along with two losses in the Quad 4, is why the Aggies are behind others in the race to make the field.

Iowa State had lost eight of its last ten and kicked its third-leading scorer off the team. The Cyclones then beat Baylor in Waco, ending a season sweep of the Bears and securing their spot in the NCAA Tournament.

The American Athletic Conference and Big Ten wrap up their regular seasons today, and there’s plenty of bubble action in those leagues.

NCAA Tournament Locks

Resume based locks: 27 | Guaranteed offers: 2 | Major positions remaining: 29



Miami, Virginia, Duke

Great East


Marquette, UConn, Xavier, Creighton

Big Ten


Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State, Iowa

Big 12


Baylor, Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Iowa State



Arizona, UCLA



Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kentucky






Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State

At the cutline

See all the teams in Palm’s Bubble Watch, the field of 68 and the entire bracket in the Bracketology Center

Bubble teams in action on Sunday

All references to NCAA tournament selection records and trends refer only to tournaments dating back to 1994 with the exception of 2021. Due to the shortened schedules and relatively small number of non-conference games in 2021, these rankings were not reliable enough to obtain into account.

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