by Atlanta Motor Speedway has been a fixture of the NASCAR schedule since 1960. On Sunday, it will host the first of two 2023 NASCAR races in Atlanta during the Cup Series schedule. The green flag will drop on the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 at 3 p.m. ET and all eyes will be on the three Hendrick Motorsports teams that were penalized last week by NASCAR after a post-race inspection in Phoenix found illegal modifications. William Byron, Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman were penalized 100 points and 10 playoff points each.
Byron is coming off back-to-back wins and won the spring race at Atlanta last season, so it’s no surprise that he’s the 9-1 favorite in the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 odds. Larson is 10-1, while he’s tied with Kyle Busch Ross Chastain and Joey Logano are 11-1 in NASCAR 2023 at Atlanta. Before you look at the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup and make any 2023 NASCAR predictions for Atlanta, be sure to check out the latest 2023 Ambetter Health 400 picks from SportsLine’s NASCAR Test Model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates each race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure’s model is off to a great start this season, already capturing Martin Truex Jr.’s victory. at the Clash (20-1), Joey Logano’s win at the Duel (8-1) and Kyle Busch’s win at Fontana (10-1). It also accounted for an impressive five of Kyle Larson’s wins during his historic 2021 season. In total, the model has nailed an impressive nine winners since 2021. Whoever followed his lead in these NASCAR picks had huge odds.
Now, the model simulated the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 10,000 times. Head over to SportsLine to see the full projected 2023 NASCAR in Atlanta leaderboard.
Ambetter Health 400 Top Predictions 2023
One surprise: the model is high on Martin Truex Jr., even though he’s a 22-1 long shot to make the 2023 NASCAR final in Atlanta. It’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 42-year-old made his 625th career NASCAR Cup Series start last week at Phoenix, but he’s still going strong. Truex is sixth in the NASCAR standings after finishing 17th or better in the first four races, leading laps in two of those races.
Toyota hasn’t been able to match Chevrolet’s speed so far in 2023, but with the parity created by the Next Generation Car, it’s only a matter of time before Joe Gibbs Racing and the rest of the Camrys call it quits. Truex is a 31-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series and although he has never been to victory lane in Atlanta, he has knocked on the door. Truex has finished 11th or better in his last 10 starts at the 1.5-mile oval and has led in six of those races. See who else to root for at SportsLine.
And a huge shocker: William Byron, the 9-1 favorite in Vegas, stumbles in a big way and fails to make the top five. There are much better prices in the Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup for 2023. Byron won the spring race at Atlanta last season and is coming off back-to-back wins that include a win at a 1.5-mile oval (Las Vegas), so it’s no surprise the fact that it is the favorite.
However, tire failures have been an issue at Atlanta since the surface was resurfaced during the off-season and additional tuning means the track is likely to run differently again. Byron finished 30th after a crash in the summer race and has finished 17th or worse in five of his seven career Cup starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR in Atlanta picks
The model also targets another driver with 2023 NASCAR Atlana odds of 20-1 or greater to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who supports these drivers could hit it hard. You can see all the model options in NASCAR at SportsLine.
So who wins the Ambetter Health 400 2023? And which longshots are must back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR Atlanta odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full 2023 Atlanta NASCAR standings, all from the model that already claimed Clash, Duel and Pala Casino 400 winners.
2023 Ambetter Health 400 returns, composition
See the full 2023 Ambetter Health 400 picks at SportsLine
William Byron 9-1
Kyle Larson 10-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Ross Chastain 11-1
Joey Logano 11-1
Christopher Bell 12-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Brad Keselowski 17-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20-1
Bubba Wallace 20-1
Chris Buescher 20-1
Kevin Harvick 20-1
Daniel Suarez 22-1
Martin Truex Jr. 22-1
Aric Almirola 25-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Chase Briscoe 28-1
Austin Sidrich 28-1
Austin Dillon 30-1
Josh Berry 35-1
Eric Jones 35-1
Corey Lajoie 45-1
Ryan Preece 50-1
Todd Gilliland 50-1
Michael McDowell 50-1
Noah Gregson 50-1
AJ Almendinger 50-1
Justin Haley 60-1
Ty Gibbs 60-1
Harrison Barton 65-1
Ty Dillon 250-1
BJ McLeod 1000-1
Cody Ware 1000-1
JJ Yeley 1000-1
